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Analysis of traffic accidents on rural highways using Latent Class Clustering and Bayesian Networks

机译:基于潜在类聚类和贝叶斯网络的农村公路交通事故分析

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摘要

One of the principal objectives of traffic accident analyses is to identify key factors that affect the severity of an accident. However, with the presence of heterogeneity in the raw data used, the analysis of traffic accidents becomes difficult. In this paper, Latent Class Cluster (LCC) is used as a preliminary tool for segmentation of 3229 accidents on rural highways in Granada (Spain) between 2005 and 2008. Next, Bayesian Networks (BNs) are used to identify the main factors involved in accident severity for both, the entire database (EDB) and the clusters previously obtained by LCC. The results of these cluster-based analyses are compared with the results of a full-data analysis. The results show that the combined use of both techniques is very interesting as it reveals further information that would not have been obtained without prior segmentation of the data. BN inference is used to obtain the variables that best identify accidents with killed or seriously injured. Accident type and sight distance have been identify in all the cases analysed; other variables such as time, occupant involved or age are identified in EDB and only in one cluster; whereas variables vehicles involved, number of injuries, atmospheric factors, pavement markings and pavement width are identified only in one cluster.
机译:交通事故分析的主要目标之一是确定影响事故严重性的关键因素。但是,由于所用原始数据中存在异构性,因此交通事故的分析变得困难。在本文中,潜在类聚类(LCC)被用作对2005年至2008年西班牙格拉纳达(西班牙)的农村公路上3229起事故进行细分的初步工具。接下来,使用贝叶斯网络(BNs)来确定参与该过程的主要因素。整个数据库(EDB)和以前由LCC获取的群集的事故严重性。将这些基于聚类的分析结果与全数据分析的结果进行比较。结果表明,两种技术的组合使用非常有趣,因为它揭示了没有数据的事先分割就无法获得的更多信息。 BN推论用于获取最能识别死亡或重伤事故的变量。在所有分析的案例中,事故类型和视距均已确定;其他变量,例如时间,所涉人员或年龄,在教育局中确定,仅在一个集群中确定;而涉及的变量车辆,伤害数量,大气因素,路面标记和路面宽度仅在一类中识别。

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